Anyone Own Deere & Company Stocks?
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    Carvel Loafer's Avatar
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    Anyone Own Deere & Company Stocks?

    I'm curious for those who have shares in Deere & Company what your thoughts on the stock are. Have you been happy with the dividends (.60 isn't too bad), have you sold off any shares for a profit, etc. ?? I notice that in the last two years the share price has gone from around $75 up to $170, not a shabby increase and maybe reason to sell for those that hold it. I don't have any yet but have it on my watchlist to buy when and if it drops lower, (not sure what my threshold is to buy yet).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carvel Loafer View Post
    I'm curious for those who have shares in Deere & Company what your thoughts on the stock are. Have you been happy with the dividends (.60 isn't too bad), have you sold off any shares for a profit, etc. ?? I notice that in the last two years the share price has gone from around $75 up to $170, not a shabby increase and maybe reason to sell for those that hold it. I don't have any yet but have it on my watchlist to buy when and if it drops lower, (not sure what my threshold is to buy yet).
    now that is a nice price increase for sure. i sure wished the Pepsi stock i had for several yrs would of did that well. it didn't even come close to that price increase.
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    SulleyBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carvel Loafer View Post
    I'm curious for those who have shares in Deere & Company what your thoughts on the stock are. Have you been happy with the dividends (.60 isn't too bad), have you sold off any shares for a profit, etc. ?? I notice that in the last two years the share price has gone from around $75 up to $170, not a shabby increase and maybe reason to sell for those that hold it. I don't have any yet but have it on my watchlist to buy when and if it drops lower, (not sure what my threshold is to buy yet).
    I have held Deere stock directly for some time. My avg cost basis is $81.71 per share. Right now, Deere in my portfolio has a deferred gain of 103.98% and I have no plans to sell. Deere represents about 3% of my total portfolio at this time in direct holdings. In indirect holdings through ETF's, I hold another roughly 4% of that in a Non qualified portfolio value.

    I don't buy it for the dividend and always use the dividend upon X date to add to the holding. Since the dividend distribution by design reduces the share price when declared, it's always best to use it for dollar cost averaging when possible if you don't need the current income. In a tax qualified plan in the U.S., it defers the gain and prevents it being taxed as a dividend, but it can ultimately result in it being taxed as ordinary income upon distribution.

    I don't have a sell order on my Deere holdings at any valuation and doubt that I would institute one. For me, Deere is clearly a long term investment. On the other hand, I am not sure I would buy any more right now with the issues with the impact on the Tariffs pending and how other nations are going to respond to the tariffs could impact Deere's results next year, but I don't see that as a reason to sell Deere.

    Based upon Deere's current financial reports, I see about $215 as the high side which would result in the value being very speculative. Should it reach that number without changes in the underlying financial results to support such a valuation, then I would consider selling some to avoid losing that gain when the pullback occurs.

    Historically, one of the fastest way to lose money seems to be to short Deere stock.......Yet some institutional investors still haven't seemed to learn this.

    I spend most of my days on issues like this.

    For the last year plus, I been actively trading leveraged ETF's. My most aggressive trades right now in the ETF universe are 300% (3X) Bullish on the Russian economy. These are EXTREMELY VOLATILE and must be TRADED and not held as investments. This specific ETF is up today 3.35% but this changes constantly. The RUSL is up YTD about 26% but again, this is not something that people should invest in if you don't understand the impact of being triple leveraged in a bullish fashion. In summary, for every 1% the Russian economy declines, the account decreases in value by 3%. For every 1% the Russian index increases in value, the account GAINS 3%.......Also, it's crucial to understand how the index is compiled and the mathmatecial assumptions in calculating the index valuation and how it impacts the ETF.

    This same company offers a Bearish fund on the Russian economy with leverages as well. While i have been bullish on the Russian economy, I have a Bearish position on the Brazilian economy in another fund.

    I want to point out that leveraged ETF's are NOT for everyone and are NOT something which can merely be invested in due to their design. They require a lot of attention and money invested in these is subject to loss daily.

    These are my personal opinions and are not to be construed at Investment Advice. Each person should always perform their own analysis and make their own determinations as to what is suitable for them based upon their risk tolerance, investment objectives and investment time frames.
    Last edited by SulleyBear; 03-09-2018 at 11:17 AM. Reason: Added content

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    SulleyBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carvel Loafer View Post
    I'm curious for those who have shares in Deere & Company what your thoughts on the stock are. Have you been happy with the dividends (.60 isn't too bad), have you sold off any shares for a profit, etc. ?? I notice that in the last two years the share price has gone from around $75 up to $170, not a shabby increase and maybe reason to sell for those that hold it. I don't have any yet but have it on my watchlist to buy when and if it drops lower, (not sure what my threshold is to buy yet).
    Depending upon the perception of the impacts, if any, of the export trade on Deere due to the steel and aluminum tariff's, this might result in a decline in the stock price. But if that occurs, expect an initial over reaction, which is typical and then it should return to a reasonable valuation based upon the realities of Deere's stewardship.

    Personally, and each person needs to make their own decision on such issues, I would only add to my current holdings if the price declined to around $118, but I don't see that happening at this time. Historically, Deere is the type of company that generally doesn't have many surprises based upon the way it is operated and the markets which it is in.

    The last time Deere traded in the $118 range was late August, early September of last year. One other point, I don't recall a time when Deere traded over $100 a share prior to when it crossed that threshold last summer.

    Keep in mind that the U.S.'s largest farm commodity grain export is soybeans (generally and such data is woefully outdated at the World Trade Organizations website with the 2017 data not expected until late June 2018) and if there is retaliation in this trade issue which is directed at the crop exports in the U.S., it will likely depress the prices of those commodities and that will pressure agricultural producers bottom lines, which is likely to impact their decision on capital expenditures for new Deere or other ag equipment.

    Once again, these are my personal opinions and each person must perform their own analysis and make their own decisions based upon their investment goals, opinions of the impacts on financial markets, risk tolerances and their investment time horizon.
    Last edited by SulleyBear; 03-09-2018 at 11:15 AM. Reason: added content

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    4 -42# Weights / JD#10 Cart

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    Always a good and interesting read

    Quote Originally Posted by SulleyBear View Post
    I have held Deere directly stock for some time. My avg cost basis is $81.71 per share. Right now, Deere in my portfolio has a deferred gain of 103.98% and I have no plans to sell. Deere represents about 3% of my total portfolio at this time in direct holdings. In indirect holdings through ETF's, I hold another roughly 4% of that in a Non qualified portfolio value.

    I don't buy it for the dividend and always use the dividend upon X date to add to the holding. Since the dividend distribution by design reduces the share price when declared, it's always best to use it for dollar cost averaging when possible if you don't need the current income. In a tax qualified plan in the U.S., it defers the gain and prevents it being taxed as a dividend, but it can ultimately result in it being taxed as ordinary income upon distribution.

    I don't have a sell order on my Deere holdings at any valuation and doubt that I would institute one. For me, Deere is clearly a long term investment. On the other hand, I am not sure I would buy any more right now with the issues with the impact on the Tariffs pending and how other nations are going to respond to the tariffs could impact Deere's results next year, but I don't see that as a reason to sell Deere.

    Based upon Deere's current financial reports, I see about $215 as the high side which would result in the value being very speculative. Should it reach that number without changes in the underlying financial results to support such a valuation, then I would consider selling some to avoid losing that gain when the pullback occurs.

    Historically, one of the fastest way to lose money seems to be to short Deere stock.......Yet some institutional investors still haven't seemed to learn this.

    I spend most of my days on issues like this.

    For the last year plus, I been actively trading leveraged ETF's. My most aggressive trades right now in the ETF universe are 300% (3X) Bullish on the Russian economy. These are EXTREMELY VOLATILE and must be TRADED and not held as investments. This specific ETF is up today 3.35% but this changes constantly. The RUSL is up YTD about 26% but again, this is not something that people should invest in if you don't understand the impact of being triple leveraged in a bullish fashion. In summary, for every 1% the Russian economy declines, the account decreases in value by 3%. For every 1% the Russian index increases in value, the account GAINS 3%.......Also, it's crucial to understand how the index is compiled and the mathmatecial assumptions in calculating the index valuation and how it impacts the ETF.

    This same company offers a Bearish fund on the Russian economy with leverages as well. While i have been bullish on the Russian economy, I have a Bearish position on the Brazilian economy in another fund.

    I want to point out that leveraged ETF's are NOT for everyone and are NOT something which can merely be invested in due to their design. They require a lot of attention and money invested in these is subject to loss daily.

    These are my personal opinions and are not to be construed at Investment Advice. Each person should always perform their own analysis and make their own determinations as to what is suitable for them based upon their risk tolerance, investment objectives and investment time frames.
    Sulleybear-

    Your comments are always interesting and educational. The comment above served to reinforce what I pretty much decided long ago. I don't have the passion, knowledge or desire to be a stock trader and therefore, I'd better stick to safer and less lucrative pursuits. It's not that I don't own stocks, I do but they are pretty mundane stocks and I do reinvest the dividends. 3 or four times a year I look at a stock and try to figure out if it's doing what I want/need it to do. If so, it stays. If not, I'll see what the tax consequences of selling might be and decide if long term, I need to do something else. I seldom sell but if the opportunity presents itself to lock in a profit, that's always on the table.

    Going short, leveraging ETF's etc. is way, way, way out of my league. Should I try to do that, I think I would find a quick way to go broke. To use a familiar quotation, "A man's got to know his limitations." My hat's off to you and I'm sure you do extremely well. I'm equally sure that I'd be a disaster trying to copy what you do but thanks for the education. It's a peak into a different world.

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    I have a little. Did have a lot, but sold it forty years ago to buy something. Don't remember what, probably something fast. Should have kept it, like a lot of other things. If nothing else, it could come in handy if there is a serious problem with a piece of equipment with no resolution. One can always mention that they are a stockholder.
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    Carvel Loafer's Avatar
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    The few bucks I have in stocks for trading are held in a TFSA, (similar to a Roth IRA). The only ETF I have is in cannabis, and it is doing very well; too bad I don't have more in there. Who would ever think I would be making money legally trading in cannabis. This trading money is only money I can "afford" to lose. My retirement and income money is in areas a little less speculative at this stage of my life.

    OOPs, have to make a correction, I just checked that ETF and it is down .15 so far today. Still okay overall though.
    Last edited by Carvel Loafer; 03-09-2018 at 11:31 AM.
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    DE Stock

    I have a position in DE in both my IRA & regular accounts. Green is my favorite color. I even have some from a 2/1 stock split. Four years ago I bought some for around $60. My original goal was to sell @ $100. Glad I didn't! I've been involved in some aspect of farming for 50+ years and watched many cycles. I bought my farm in the 80's when the government had the whole herd buyout of dairy farms. It appears to me that farm equipment manufacturing is going to have an uptick even though commodity prices are at break even prices. Ag machines wear out. If anyone follows MachineryPete on YouTube, check what good low hours tractors and combines are selling for. Sometimes more then what they sold for new. Eventually the used machinery inventory will dry up and farmers will have to buy new. Plus if you follow DE you know that last year they bought Wirtgren (sp). A German road construction manufacture. The purchase added a chunk to DE's bottom line. DE's price, $167 (3-9), is hard to swallow to purchase 100 shares, but I see it going to $200. Just my opinion.

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    Bubber's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SulleyBear View Post
    My avg cost basis is $81.71 per share. Right now, Deere in my portfolio has a deferred gain of 103.98% and I have no plans to sell.
    $81.85/103.95% here.

    I don't have a lot. I don't buy many individual stocks. I'm what's been classified in another thread as the type that only buys something that I have a direct interest in. I believe in Deere, so I'll hold on to it.
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    I don't have any but I am happy with the Apple and Microsoft I have held for 25 years!
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