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Disturbing news from The Motley Fool...

"Data from the National Association of Home Builders shows framing lumber prices have rocketed 26% higher over the past month, and are about double where they stood a year ago."

"there's one area where the home improvement warehouses can't disguise a lack of merchandise -- their lumber departments. A recent visit to my local Home Depot found the lumber racks virtually picked clean, with just a few stray pieces of dimensional lumber scattered about.
While sheet goods were somewhat better, pricing on even the cheapest grades of plywood were exorbitant, and it was like that at several of the area DIY centers I visited."

 

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I have found that this stands to be true.
Lumber racks have been picked clean of most 2x, 4x, 6x, 8x and related in standard and pressure treated.
 

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I was making some repairs to my deck last month. At the local lumber/hardware store the pressure treated was non existent. The guy says they don’t know when or where their next load is coming - looks like no more this year. Said every lumber yard within 100 miles was the same.

Can’t comment on the price of what I bought - have nothing to compare it to as I rarely buy lumber.

I’m used to getting rough sawn lumber at a little family owned mill anyway.
 

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Another covid issue. When covid hit, some mills shut down or slowed production by limiting shifts because 1) they didn't want to have workers where they could transmit covid, 2) they figured housing construction would fall off the cliff like it did on 2008 and 3) they didn't account for everyone being home and wanting to do small scale remodeling and fix ups. Mill owners that were in business in 2008 remember well how hard they were hit as many of them had bought timber at relatively high prices and suddenly were on the hook for it even though they didn't have any place to sell lumber.

So the lumber pipeline got thin before the mills started back production and even then some were affected by having workers out so they aren't running flat out. Those that can run are doing well; very, very well as timber prices are flat, well below where they were pre covid. (Trust me, I check those prices frequently.) Is it greed? Yep, certainly that plays a part but mostly it's happenstance, supply and demand.

There's a surplus of timber in the country as demand has never caught up to the accumulated growth after 2008, particularly in the southeast. Eventually it will settle back to an equilibrium but in the meantime, keep looking and buying lumber- we'll grow more trees.

Treefarmer
 

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This is more than a Covid supply chain issue. Aside from unexpectedly high demand in many areas, the US and Canada are playing tariff games again. It's probably going to get worse as we continue to play games going into the election.
 

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I figure in about another week the prices should drop as I'll have all I need to finish my shop. Dropped another $1500 today.
749695
 

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Here are some fairly recent articles on the subject:



Here's a more in depth look: https://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/sustain/draft/timbr1/timbr1.pdf

Treefarmer
 

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Hardwoods must be doing OK. They are logging on the mountain behind me - those guys are working 10 hour days 7 days a week.

Hearing the saw and the skidder from a distance is actually soothing to me......I can picture exactly what they are doing - can hear the tree fall then the skidder fire up.
 

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Hardwoods must be doing OK. They are logging on the mountain behind me - those guys are working 10 hour days 7 days a week.

Hearing the saw and the skidder from a distance is actually soothing to me......I can picture exactly what they are doing - can hear the tree fall then the skidder fire up.
red oak and cherry are at the bottom of the barrel, wood cutter that has been cutting at my aunts place here along the base of the mountain hasn't been here for over a yr because of the low prices. i watch a couple u-tube cutters and they claim same thing. for some reason no one wants any wood that has a red tint to it
 

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red oak and cherry are at the bottom of the barrel, wood cutter that has been cutting at my aunts place here along the base of the mountain hasn't been here for over a yr because of the low prices. i watch a couple u-tube cutters and they claim same thing. for some reason no one wants any wood that has a red tint to it
The mill up the road has more inventory of planks than I have ever seen before. Guess that’s a sign they are holding on to it all right now.

Red Oak and Cherry are what’s prevalent here in our part of the woods also.

But the mill still seems busy enough.
 

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Strange times we are in. Seems we have a record number of people on unemployment that claim they can’t find work. Yet every store I walk into has a help wanted sign posted. Other local businesses are running adds looking for help. My employer pulled me off a crew that was already short handed to go help out another.

one of my coworkers wanted to get some concrete pored , was told not this year, maybe next summer by more than one contractor. Every where I look houses are being built. Seems to be a lot of commercial building too.

One of my friends wants to have is property logged to improve deer habitat. He’s being told standing timber isn’t worth much now and he should wait until the market improves. But yet lumber seems to be in short supply.
 

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Strange times we are in. Seems we have a record number of people on unemployment that claim they can’t find work. Yet every store I walk into has a help wanted sign posted. Other local businesses are running adds looking for help. My employer pulled me off a crew that was already short handed to go help out another.

one of my coworkers wanted to get some concrete pored , was told not this year, maybe next summer by more than one contractor. Every where I look houses are being built. Seems to be a lot of commercial building too.

One of my friends wants to have is property logged to improve deer habitat. He’s being told standing timber isn’t worth much now and he should wait until the market improves. But yet lumber seems to be in short supply.
Our neighbor is currently putting in an in-ground swimming pool.
 

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Strange times we are in. Seems we have a record number of people on unemployment that claim they can’t find work. Yet every store I walk into has a help wanted sign posted. ...
It sure is a strange time. Record unemployment, political parties playing 'hot potato' with stimulus packages, yet every store I go to is bustling with shoppers - especially HD and Lowes which never shut down in the first place. I guess people are too busy spending money to worry about earning it. My fear is all this stuff is being bought on credit.....and we are headed for an avalanche of credit defaults soon that will be yet another black eye for the economy.
 

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Strange times we are in. Seems we have a record number of people on unemployment that claim they can’t find work. Yet every store I walk into has a help wanted sign posted. Other local businesses are running adds looking for help. My employer pulled me off a crew that was already short handed to go help out another.

one of my coworkers wanted to get some concrete pored , was told not this year, maybe next summer by more than one contractor. Every where I look houses are being built. Seems to be a lot of commercial building too.

One of my friends wants to have is property logged to improve deer habitat. He’s being told standing timber isn’t worth much now and he should wait until the market improves. But yet lumber seems to be in short supply.
I'm being told the same thing about standing timber but timber is a local market due to hauling costs. In our case, if 2-3 mills have enough timber purchased, the rest know to cut their prices.

Treefarmer
 

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It sure is a strange time. Record unemployment, political parties playing 'hot potato' with stimulus packages, yet every store I go to is bustling with shoppers - especially HD and Lowes which never shut down in the first place. I guess people are too busy spending money to worry about earning it. My fear is all this stuff is being bought on credit.....and we are headed for an avalanche of credit defaults soon that will be yet another black eye for the economy.
the word out on the street(internet) is that stuff is all gonna be repoed later this yr or in the late future. to me its the early to mid 80's all over, when the coal market's bit the dust. so many people was involved with coal here back then. new pickups good repoed -tri-axle dump trucks got picked up, some fellas lost their houses.

but thiis time--with credit so easy anymore--its gonna be a surplus of anything u want.
 

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I'm being told the same thing about standing timber but timber is a local market due to hauling costs. In our case, if 2-3 mills have enough timber purchased, the rest know to cut their prices.

Treefarmer
We had a big storm come through last summer and knock down large tracts of timber. on Both private and public land. So they have been clear cutting that area trying to salvage what they can before it rots. From what I could see it was mostly pines that just got blown down So the market is flooded.
 

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the word out on the street(internet) is that stuff is all gonna be repoed later this yr or in the late future. to me its the early to mid 80's all over, when the coal market's bit the dust. so many people was involved with coal here back then. new pickups good repoed -tri-axle dump trucks got picked up, some fellas lost their houses.

but thiis time--with credit so easy anymore--its gonna be a surplus of anything u want.
I disagree.
I don't mean to sound callous, but there's work out there for anyone with the ambition to work and willingness to go where the work is.
There really should be very little loan failures.
 
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I disagree.
I don't mean to sound callous, but there's work out there for anyone with the ambition to work and willingness to go where the work is.
There really should be very little loan failures.
You are dead correct, there really shouldn't be a problem except people are so set in living where they want to live, doing what they want to do that many won't go to a job in a different location or won't take a job that's not what they want to do.

Very different attitude from what I grew up with. My parents did what they had to do and tried to make it work with what they wanted to do. You provided for your family first, then your desires came second. That didn't mean the kids got everything we wanted, we most certainly did not but we got what we needed- food, a safe home, necessary clothing etc. We also learned about working- there's nothing like pulling weeds in a bean field for pennies an hour to give you appreciation of a dollar. Loading baskets of tomatoes on a truck was another fun job- it's the only time I ever saw our one hired man have to be helped to shade because the heat got him.

Bottom line in those days was if you didn't have a job and one was available, you took the job that you could get even if it wasn't what you wanted. If you wanted more money, you either found a better job or took a second job or even a third job. I was always able to make do with jobs in the area but many had to move to where a job was. Historically, that's what built the cities that are now in such a mess. People moved to Detroit, Chicago, New York etc. because that's where jobs were. Since those cities are business unfriendly people need to move elsewhere and many are. Sadly, many able bodied people won't move and instead expect the government to take care of them because there are no jobs. Even more sadly, there are plenty of politicians willing to "fix" the problem as long as the non-workers will vote the right way.

Oops, might have infringed on the political section. Please ignore the previous sentence.

Treefarmer
 

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You are dead correct, there really shouldn't be a problem except people are so set in living where they want to live, doing what they want to do that many won't go to a job in a different location or won't take a job that's not what they want to do.

Very different attitude from what I grew up with. My parents did what they had to do and tried to make it work with what they wanted to do. You provided for your family first, then your desires came second. That didn't mean the kids got everything we wanted, we most certainly did not but we got what we needed- food, a safe home, necessary clothing etc. We also learned about working- there's nothing like pulling weeds in a bean field for pennies an hour to give you appreciation of a dollar. Loading baskets of tomatoes on a truck was another fun job- it's the only time I ever saw our one hired man have to be helped to shade because the heat got him.

Bottom line in those days was if you didn't have a job and one was available, you took the job that you could get even if it wasn't what you wanted. If you wanted more money, you either found a better job or took a second job or even a third job. I was always able to make do with jobs in the area but many had to move to where a job was. Historically, that's what built the cities that are now in such a mess. People moved to Detroit, Chicago, New York etc. because that's where jobs were. Since those cities are business unfriendly people need to move elsewhere and many are. Sadly, many able bodied people won't move and instead expect the government to take care of them because there are no jobs. Even more sadly, there are plenty of politicians willing to "fix" the problem as long as the non-workers will vote the right way.

Oops, might have infringed on the political section. Please ignore the previous sentence.

Treefarmer
Nailed it.
 
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I just spent $200 for 10 2x4x8' treated and 3 sheets of 1/2" treated cdx. Couldnt even buy all I needed. And that includes hitting 3 lumber yards.
 
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