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Quite a ride the last 9 months. Unfortunately, back to where we started. Unreal.
It's looking more and more like a redux. I didn't like it then and won't like the remake. . .Prices might be down...Truss Dates are out 3 months here in PNW.
Its a complete disaster.....Snafu'd/Fubard'd.....Been out a werk for over a month.
And its not looking much better......I don't wanna relive 1981....interest @ 21%
Interesting followup in the VT August Housing report. Housing currently under construction was up 20% year over year. Total permits were down 13% year over year. That's a flip from a few months ago when permits were up. So while lumber demand is still fairly solid, it's headed down as the current houses under construction are completed.It's looking more and more like a redux. I didn't like it then and won't like the remake. . .
Nationally lumber prices are down significantly and likely to go down more as housing construction contracts. They won't return to pre-pandemic levels however because the cost of fuel, trucking, electricity etc. are all rising.
Wow the >5 MF permits are way up. In theory I guess each of those permits is equal to at least 4 more SF permits. Good time to get into being a landlord it seems. Buying a house at todays prices and >6% interest will be unobtainable for many people.Interesting followup in the VT August Housing report. Housing currently under construction was up 20% year over year. Total permits were down 13% year over year. That's a flip from a few months ago when permits were up. So while lumber demand is still fairly solid, it's headed down as the current houses under construction are completed.
It's not as bad as the 2008 mess, yet.
View attachment 867814
Something around 900,000 to 1,000,000 single family homes/year are needed to replace old houses and allow for new households. There's still a pretty large unbuilt demand from 2008 through the last quarter of 2021. Some of that will never be built as a generation didn't form households at the same level as in the past.
I don't think hurricane demand is cooked in yet......so I think that will keep things up at least another 12+ months ...especially drywall ....not sure how that type of demand will be reflected in permits etc,Interesting followup in the VT August Housing report. Housing currently under construction was up 20% year over year. Total permits were down 13% year over year. That's a flip from a few months ago when permits were up. So while lumber demand is still fairly solid, it's headed down as the current houses under construction are completed.
It's not as bad as the 2008 mess, yet.
View attachment 867814
Something around 900,000 to 1,000,000 single family homes/year are needed to replace old houses and allow for new households. There's still a pretty large unbuilt demand from 2008 through the last quarter of 2021. Some of that will never be built as a generation didn't form households at the same level as in the past.
Those were August numbers so definitely no hurricane numbers. Those will be significant but will take a while to work into the numbers.I don't think hurricane demand is cooked in yet......so I think that will keep things up at least another 12+ months ...especially drywall ....not sure how that type of demand will be reflected in permits etc,