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I work in the building materials and lumber market. The problem is the mills and Random Lengths pricing, not based off local market. If you had 10 truck loads of OSB and felt you could get two more dollars a sheet next week you would hold selling. That is what is causing the backlog of demand. Once prices start to fall those same people holding will dump, flooding the market causing a crash in pricing. Believe me the lumber yards (sellers) are making less margin percentage now than pre-covid. The mills are making the money!


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Check their website, still showing $650 today.
Unfortunately that price is for the 36" forks but thanks for checking, I appreciate it.
I do see the 48" are down to $750 now.

As far as the crazy lumber prices, I know I'm "repurposing" all I can find when I'd likely just pick up a few new boards in the past.
 

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I see OSB is up to $49 a sheet, and a 8’ 2x4 is $10 ant Menards. How can anyone be building at these prices. I was supposed to be helping my brother build a garage over the holiday weekend .But he’s decided not to build this year because of the high prices.

I’m not sure what my niece is doing they were supposed to build a house this spring, but decided to buy a place instead. Last I heard they weren’t having any luck finding a place in the area, got out bid more than once. She was talking about building again as she does have a lot to build on but no permits or anything set up. If she would get her **** in order I would be more than willing to help out as much as I could spring and summer. But, with work and hunt ing , I don’t have time in fall.
 
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I watch the OSB price at the local Home D as a gauge for how the trend is going. It's listed at $63.05 today for 7/16" 4x8. Last year it was nine bucks. It seems I read somewhere that it's the chemicals for the glues and resins that are making the manufactured "cheap" building products go up at a greater rate than lumber.

I have a couple projects that will be waiting a while.
 
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I watch the OSB price at the local Home D as a gauge for how the trend is going. It's listed at $63.05 today for 7/16" 4x8. Last year it was nine bucks. It seems I read somewhere that it's the chemicals for the glues and resins that are making the manufactured "cheap" building products go up at a greater rate than lumber.

I have a couple projects that will be waiting a while.
That doesn’t explain the $10 2x4 that was less than $3 a year ago. its hard to believe people are still building at these prices. I drove up to the cabin this afternoon and saw a number of trucks with trailers loaded with building supplies headed north for the weekend along with all kinds of new looking toys. Boats atvs and campers. Apparently the stimulus money is working.
 

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Unfortunately, Treefarmer, I think you're 1000% spot on!!

Think about interest rates and the percentage of the annual Federal budget that is just used to cover interest on the debt. The debt has almost tripled (from approx $10T to approaching $30T last I heard) since Obama took office. So I'd assume that interest expense has done the same. If interest rates on the debt go up, that's more of the budget that can't be spent on other things (infrastructure) so they'll print/borrow more money for that (and social programs) and the cycle continues. At some point, it's going to explode. Just when that happens is the question.
can most of u fellas remember what the 80's was like? the interest rate for my BIL to buy his new house was at around 12% in 81, and i think he paid for a point or so to bring it down to that amount. i see it going back to that again.
gonna have to be only to buy gas on the even or odd days according to ur cars license plates--remember them days!?

anyone remember how bad the interstate's roads was in the mid-80's? wasn't a day that went by-that i didn't see a brake drum(busted now) laying on the berm, spring plies, all kind of stuff that fell off of trucks and trailers. heck i had at one time around 30 nice mud flaps at my place, could of got run over a few times just to pick up a $10 flap back then. lol now their big money for one. just my luck too.

i had forgot about the 22 sheets of 1/2 inch plywood i had bought off my FIL's estate yrs ago. so thanks Giz and McDrew for making me think about that! richer than i thought-huh. ha!
 

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Ordinarily I wouldn't look for a collapse from the lumber price issue. I do think there will be a slow decline as demand wanes and supply stays constant or builds. However, given that much of the issue is at least associated, if not caused by various governments a collapse is certainly possible. If the Fed wakes up and realizes we do have inflation and decides to substantially raise interest rates, that could be a trigger. If China or other countries stops buying our debt until interest rates go up, that could be a trigger. If the administration gets their tax package and investment flees the country, that could be a factor. If all of those conincide, IMHO we're screwed. It won't be just lumber prices collapsing.

Treefarmer
It might be of interest to know china has been reducing holdings of US debt since 2017.....currently Japan is largest total foreign holder over china......but the largest single holder of US debt is the Federal Reserve itself Currently holding about as much as Japan and China combined......

just thought i would toss this out there since you seem to follow these things......im sure you know what the Fed buying debt implys
 

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but the largest single holder of US debt is the Federal Reserve itself Currently holding about as much as Japan and China combined......
The biggest/wealthiest private company in the US. What an absolute joke.
 

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It might be of interest to know china has been reducing holdings of US debt since 2017.....currently Japan is largest total foreign holder over china......but the largest single holder of US debt is the Federal Reserve itself Currently holding about as much as Japan and China combined......

just thought i would toss this out there since you seem to follow these things......im sure you know what the Fed buying debt implys
Yep, when the Fed is buying debt it essentially means the Treasury is printing money.

The issue of China reducing holdings is good sense on their part but not good for the US because it means they anticipate dollars will be worth less or worthless in the future.

Treefarmer
 

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Jim, I certainly remember the gas shortages, (73 and again in 79) but when Regan took over those were the busiest years of my entire building career, (1972-2003).. We were two years out and people couldn't shove enough money at you to hold a spot. I don't remember lumber prices going that high either. A little and I do remember later on our supplier couldn't hold a quote for more then 30 days. That was tough on business owners and I did take some shellacking on a few jobs back then because of that until I smartened up about contracts and hired a lawyer.. It was a learning curve for sure. We weren't used to these new supply issues back then, and peopel running out of money to pay you for the house they are living in that you paid for!
Gas rationing was terrible, luckily we had a friend who's dad owned a Texaco gas station and he had plenty of gas but closed like everyone else did, just to jack up the prices. we used to go fill up at night.
I don't remember being out of work ever though, never laid anyone off in 30 years of business, ( a few 30 day notes helped a lot back then). There were some hard times but we stayed busy building houses and doing commercial work. When I retired at 50 I did get the guys jobs at a local college, Wasn't their fault I was feeling like I was 70 years old!
I am so glad today I'm not doing that work, Principle alone would not let me pay as much as I'm seeing on these posts.. 10 bucks for a friggin 2x4?? (used to be .39 a piece for KD back I guess in the stone age).. junk OSB, 45 a sheet for not even 1/2"? crazy.. no way would I build anything... And they blame the glue??? That's just total BS.. You all know it and so don't I..... I just checked my drivers license and I wasn't born yesterday....
 

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Yep, when the Fed is buying debt it essentially means the Treasury is printing money.

The issue of China reducing holdings is good sense on their part but not good for the US because it means they anticipate dollars will be worth less or worthless in the future.

Treefarmer
As usual, bad times for savers.

Always wondered what will/would happen to those of us who watch their "nest egg" of money they've saved for a rainy day eroded to junk bond status.

And that includes 401ks and other work savings.
 

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As usual, bad times for savers.

Always wondered what will/would happen to those of us who watch their "nest egg" of money they've saved for a rainy day eroded to junk bond status.

And that includes 401ks and other work savings.
I think it’s going to be bad times for everyone.
Everyone will end up on the same level playing field, which is below the average of today. That’s the whole idea. Unless you are one of the really super wealthy elites it’s not going to begood. Could be by design, I dunno?
 

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it is by design...
 

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I think it’s going to be bad times for everyone.
Everyone will end up on the same level playing field, which is below the average of today. That’s the whole idea. Unless you are one of the really super wealthy elites it’s not going to begood. Could be by design, I dunno?
The lumber price increase versus mortgage cost/home value is interesting, at least to me.

History proves that governments tend to muck with things like that which is bad for those of us who played by the rules and saved and spent frugally and bought homes within our means.

I'll stop there since that treads into politics.
 

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The lumber price increase versus mortgage cost/home value is interesting, at least to me.

History proves that governments tend to muck with things like that which is bad for those of us who played by the rules and saved and spent frugally and bought homes within our means.

I'll stop there since that treads into politics.
And that is where the problem resides. :sneaky:
 

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And that is where the problem resides. :sneaky:
I know what you mean. We're living in an actual clown world right now, the movie Idiocracy has become a documentary - and we can't even share the crazy bits. :-(
 
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